Home / Vol. 24 (2019)

MODELING AND PREDICTION OF HIGH TEMPERATURE OXIDATION OF STEELS USED IN PETROLEUM REFINERY HEATERS

Naji Abdelwanis, Abdelrahman S. Sultan, Omar M Elmabrouk

Libya

DOI: 10.68482/prj.2019.24.011 · Published Dec 2019 · Section: Industrial · Pages: 99–106

Abstract

This paper implements Response Surface Methodology (RSM), with rotatable Central Composite Design (CCD), in modeling and prediction of high-temperature oxidation of steels used in petroleum refinery heaters. A mathematical quadratic model was developed for modeling and prediction of the relationship between the weights gained of the oxidized steel and condition parameters, namely chromium percentage, temperature and exposure time with a range of, 0-5wt%, 450-500°C, and 0-40hrs respectively. Also, the surface plots and response surface contour plots were constructed for investigating the simultaneous effect of the condition process parameters on the weights gained from the oxidized steel and determining the optimum values of the parameter conditions. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between the actual and predicted weights gained from the oxidized steel values was calculated to test the validity of the developed mathematical model. The value of the (MAE) was 0.42 which indicates that the developed mathematical model have good agreement with the actual. The statistical analysis of variance (ANOVA) was also utilized to analyze the effect of the investigated parameter condition, this analysis results demonstrated that chromium weight percent and temperature have the most significant effect on the weights gained oxidation of steels used in petroleum refinery heaters followed by exposed time.

Keywords

Modeling, Prediction, RSM, High temperature corrosion n

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